NAS10028,945+0.02%S&P7,552−0.45%GOLD$4,410+0.51%BTC$76,720+0.75%VIX15.47−12.65%live tape · as of 19:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Matador Resources Company
MTDR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.1B · 483 employees
Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States.
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Matador Resources Company holds its Accumulation at $57.73. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$57.73
Valuation
9.90 trailing · 6.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.79
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.78%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.77%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Explorer's Low Multiple Hides Cyclical Trap
Picture a rig crew chasing barrels when prices swing wildly from boom to bust. Matador Resources sits in that exact spot, trading at a forward multiple of 6.3 times with revenue already down 6 percent. The business clears a 13 percent profit margin and 10 percent return on equity, yet opportunity rating stays at none because this remains a classic cyclical value trap where peak earnings and a depressed multiple often mark the top, not the bottom.
We pass despite an ethical screen that clears and analyst targets clustered near 68 dollars. The 30 percent gap to our own fair value of 69.81 looks attractive on paper, but energy exploration earnings are hostage to commodity cycles that rarely stay elevated long enough for multiples to re-rate sustainably.
Risk therefore centres on revenue contraction and unknown competitive protection in a sector prone to sudden price collapses. Margin of safety can evaporate quickly when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MTDR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-08-06Distribution$49.89-7.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-07-18Distribution$54.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-07-03Distribution$54.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$54.05Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
