2026-10-25
Matador Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Matador Resources Company
MTDR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.1B · 483 employees
Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States.
Not yet scored54.31 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 02:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price54.31 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
- Fair valueUnder review: our model's value is 1.40x the price, above our 1.35x limit.
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.30)
- Last reviewed3 Nov 2026 (2 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: range not available (screen dated 2026-11-03).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.30, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price54.31 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation57.75-6.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 9% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markdown52.91+2.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Distribution54.09+0.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-09-06Read Accumulation56.74-4.3% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
Matador Resources Company holds its Markup at $54.31. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 371 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 371 days |
| Price at the screen | $54.31 |
| Valuation | 9.91 trailing · 5.84 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.97 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 29.78% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 29.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 3.77% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 3.8% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Matador Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Matador Resources clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 30%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.40x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
The Street's RangeThird-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsOil Explorer's Low Multiple Hides Cyclical Trap
Picture a rig crew chasing barrels when prices swing wildly from boom to bust. Matador Resources sits in that exact spot, trading at a forward multiple of 6.3 times with revenue already down 6 percent. The business clears a 13 percent profit margin and 10 percent return on equity, yet opportunity rating stays at none because this remains a classic cyclical value trap where peak earnings and a depressed multiple often mark the top, not the bottom.
We pass despite an ethical screen that clears and analyst targets clustered near 68 dollars. The 30 percent gap to our own fair value of 69.81 looks attractive on paper, but energy exploration earnings are hostage to commodity cycles that rarely stay elevated long enough for multiples to re-rate sustainably.
Risk therefore centres on revenue contraction and unknown competitive protection in a sector prone to sudden price collapses. Margin of safety can evaporate quickly when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 5.8xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 9.9xvery cheap relative to earnings |
| EPS, trailing | 5.83 |
| EPS, forward | 9.88 |
| Revenue growth | +26.8%strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | 18.8%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 13.6%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -12.70% |
| Dividend yield | 278.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.69moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 0.65below 1: short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.97steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.13% |
| 52-week range | 37.14 - 66.84 |
| Market cap | $7.1B |
| Employees | 483 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMTDR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03
Accumulation $60.88
+0.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $60.88
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $60.88
+1.5% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Accumulation $59.96
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $59.96
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $59.96
+3.8% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $57.75
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $57.75
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation · changed $57.75
+7.4% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-10-18
Markdown $53.77
+1.6% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $56.33 | -1.5% | · | $986 | -1.5% |
| 2 months | $59.46 | -6.6% | $0.38 | $940 | -6.0% |
| 3 months | $55.78 | -0.5% | $0.38 | $1,002 | +0.2% |
| 6 months | $44.25 | +25.5% | $0.75 | $1,272 | +27.2% |
| 1 year | $46.49 | +19.4% | $1.44 | $1,225 | +22.5% |
| 2 years | $56.91 | -2.5% | $2.51 | $1,020 | +2.0% |
| 3 years | $47.63 | +16.5% | $3.26 | $1,234 | +23.4% |
| 5 years | $31.13 | +78.3% | $3.94 | $1,910 | +91.0% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MTDR does next, these words stay.
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