An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $49.89
Matador Resources Company holds its Distribution at $49.89.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-31
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 264 days
Price
$49.89
Valuation
12.86 trailing · 5.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.74
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$49.89
12.86 P/E · 5.68 fwd
Our fair value
$67.35
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$68.00
+36% to current
Target low $54.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $93.00
▲ current $49.89 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$49.89
you are here
Conservative
$55.67
+12%
Analyst avg
$68.00
+36%
Our fair value
$67.35
+35%
Analyst high
$93.00
+86%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-6.40%
Profit margin
13.45%
Debt to equity
60.38
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 19 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 53.4%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Oil Explorer's Low Multiple Hides Cyclical Trap
Picture a rig crew chasing barrels when prices swing wildly from boom to bust. Matador Resources sits in that exact spot, trading at a forward multiple of 6.3 times with revenue already down 6 percent. The business clears a 13 percent profit margin and 10 percent return on equity, yet opportunity rating stays at none because this remains a classic cyclical value trap where peak earnings and a depressed multiple often mark the top, not the bottom.
We pass despite an ethical screen that clears and analyst targets clustered near 68 dollars. The 30 percent gap to our own fair value of 69.81 looks attractive on paper, but energy exploration earnings are hostage to commodity cycles that rarely stay elevated long enough for multiples to re-rate sustainably.
Risk therefore centres on revenue contraction and unknown competitive protection in a sector prone to sudden price collapses. Margin of safety can evaporate quickly when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MTDR trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$54.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-07-03Distribution$54.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$54.05Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$56.33
-1.5%
·
$986
-1.5%
2 months
$59.46
-6.6%
$0.38
$940
-6.0%
3 months
$55.78
-0.5%
$0.38
$1,002
+0.2%
6 months
$44.25
+25.5%
$0.75
$1,272
+27.2%
1 year
$46.49
+19.4%
$1.44
$1,225
+22.5%
2 years
$56.91
-2.5%
$2.51
$1,020
+2.0%
3 years
$47.63
+16.5%
$3.26
$1,234
+23.4%
5 years
$31.13
+78.3%
$3.94
$1,910
+91.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MTDR does next, these words stay.
Matador Resources Company · MTDR · Distribution · $49.89
Recorded 2026-07-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
