VIST · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.6B · 584 employees
Vista Energy, S.A.B.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
68.39 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-25
Screened 2026-08-25 · the tape above runs as of 16:37 UTC · 29 Aug · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. holds its Accumulation at $68.39. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 126 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-25
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 126 days
Price at the screen
$68.39
Valuation
9.00 trailing · 6.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.37%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.92%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.43%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.43%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Argentina oil play looks cheap for a reason
Picture a rig crew in Vaca Muerta watching oil prices swing like a pendulum. Vista Energy shows eye-catching revenue growth of 102 percent and a forward multiple of just 6.7 times, yet those figures sit inside a sector where earnings peak and trough with commodity cycles. Low multiples in this business usually signal the top of the cycle rather than a bargain.
We pass despite the ethical screen clearing and a 30 percent return on equity. The 35 percent gap to our fair value estimate looks attractive on paper, yet the low multiple itself acts as a warning that current profits may not hold once prices normalise. Strong analyst targets do not change the fact that this remains a classic cyclical value trap.
Currency swings, political risk in Argentina and the usual oil-price volatility sit on top of an unknown moat. The numbers invite a closer look only if you accept those swings as permanent. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Mexico and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VIST trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Mexico). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $98.
2026-07-18Markup$72.14+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $98.
2026-07-03Markup$72.14+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$72.14Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
