Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price58.09 USD
Fair value87.39
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation57.12+1.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-10-02Read Markdown58.64-0.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-23Read Distribution68.76-15.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup71.54-18.8% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Blue Bird Corporation holds its Accumulation at $58.09. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$58.09
Valuation
7.22 trailing · 14.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
14.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 14.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
39.98%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 40.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.42%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Blue Bird clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 14%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BLBD passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 32% discount to our $87.39 fair value, 29.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $87.39, with a range of $76.50 to $104.73, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
School buses roll daily yet we pass
Every morning yellow buses ferry children to class across America, yet Blue Bird shows revenue slipping 2 percent even as margins sit at 9 percent. Our fair value sits 20 percent above the current price and the ethical screen clears, but the opportunity rating stays at none. The business simply fails to clear the bar once we weigh the full picture.
High return on equity at 54 percent catches the eye and analysts lean strong buy, yet forward earnings sit at a middling 14 times with no growth tailwind. Government budgets that drive orders can tighten quickly, and an unknown moat leaves little protection if rivals or electric newcomers gain ground. We see no compelling reason to step in.
Risk sits with the cyclical order book and any slowdown in school district spending. A single bad budget cycle can erase the apparent discount fast. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BLBD trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$57.85+1.3%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-10-21Markdown$57.51+2.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-10-14Markdown$56.29-4.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$58.64-14.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-23Markup$78.34+9.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-18Markup$71.54+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-03Markup$71.54+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$71.54Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
