Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.07 USD
Fair value15.00
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Accumulation11.34-2.4% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-19Read Markdown11.51-3.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-07-02Read Markup11.51-3.8% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG holds its Accumulation at $11.07. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$11.07
Valuation
70.94 trailing · 9.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
87.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 87.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
11.35%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 11.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Aebi Schmidt's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 87% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today AEBI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 22% discount to our $15.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 77.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 26.2% discount to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $15.00, with a range of $15.00 to $23.26, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 77%-growth business trading at just 9.1x forward earnings, with a weak competitive moat. That is a 22% discount to our $15.00 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 2 analysts rate it Buy with a $15.00 average target, about 36% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEBI trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-27Markdown$11.22+1.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-12Markdown$11.02-8.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-02Markdown$12.06+4.8%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-09-19Markdown · changed$11.51+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-08-20Markup$11.51+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-20Markup$11.51+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-18Markup$11.51+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-16Markup$11.51+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-03Markup$11.51+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.