Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.00, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price145.68 USD
Fair value216.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown164.87-11.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-09-21Read Accumulation168.42-13.5% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-08-21Read Markup165.22-11.8% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup
2026-07-21Read Accumulation162.43-10.3% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 3 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alamo Group Inc. holds its Markdown at $145.68. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$145.68
Valuation
17.81 trailing · 12.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
13.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 13.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
36.51%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 36.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.35%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Alamo clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 13%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ALG passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Machinery for fields and roads but little edge
Alamo makes the kit that keeps verges trimmed and roads cleared, from tractor-mounted mowers to industrial sweepers sold to councils and contractors worldwide. Revenue is rising at 7 percent, yet the business earns only a 6 percent profit margin and a 9 percent return on equity. With a forward multiple of 13.5 times earnings the shares sit below our calculated fair value, yet the opportunity rating stays at none because nothing in the numbers or the market position suggests durable improvement.
The ethical screen clears without issue and five analysts cluster around a 216 dollar median target. Still, an unknown moat and single-digit returns leave little room for error if input costs rise or government budgets tighten. A low multiple on modest returns can simply reflect a business that struggles to compound.
Cyclical demand in agriculture and public works adds further uncertainty, so the apparent discount does not translate into a compelling case. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$148.50+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$148.50+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$148.50-2.7%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-10-19Markdown$152.62+0.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-10-12Markdown$152.42-7.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$164.87-2.1%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$165.22+1.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-07-18Distribution$153.74+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
