Screened 2026-07-19 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Alamo Group Inc. holds its Accumulation at $162.43. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 26 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 26 days
Price at the screen
$162.43
Valuation
19.41 trailing · 13.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-19 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-19 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Machinery for fields and roads but little edge
Alamo makes the kit that keeps verges trimmed and roads cleared, from tractor-mounted mowers to industrial sweepers sold to councils and contractors worldwide. Revenue is rising at 7 percent, yet the business earns only a 6 percent profit margin and a 9 percent return on equity. With a forward multiple of 13.5 times earnings the shares sit below our calculated fair value, yet the opportunity rating stays at none because nothing in the numbers or the market position suggests durable improvement.
The ethical screen clears without issue and five analysts cluster around a 216 dollar median target. Still, an unknown moat and single-digit returns leave little room for error if input costs rise or government budgets tighten. A low multiple on modest returns can simply reflect a business that struggles to compound.
Cyclical demand in agriculture and public works adds further uncertainty, so the apparent discount does not translate into a compelling case. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-07-18Distribution$153.74+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-07-17Distribution$153.74+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $210.
2026-07-03Distribution$153.74+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$153.74Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
