Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.56, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price103.40 USD
Fair value99.55
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution111.81-7.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 11 days
2026-09-21Read Markup121.10-14.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 19% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-21Read Distribution101.63+1.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-20Read Accumulation115.33-10.3% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AGCO Corporation holds its Distribution at $103.40. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 62 days
Price at the screen
$103.40
Valuation
14.12 trailing · 13.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.07
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.56%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
AGCO clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 21%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AGCO's ethical verdict changes
Today AGCO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 2.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Tractors sell but cycles often trap value
Picture a Midwest farmer trading up to a new high-horsepower tractor after a decent harvest. AGCO supplies those machines and parts around the world, posting 14 percent revenue growth and an 18 percent return on equity. Those numbers look respectable on the surface.
Yet the opportunity rating sits at none. The shares trade at 14.4 times forward earnings with a 19 percent gap to fair value, but analysts cluster on a hold rating and a 130 dollar median target. Ethical checks pass without issue, so the bar is simply not cleared on valuation or durability.
Farm equipment demand rises and falls with crop prices and farmer cash flow, so a low multiple can mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Currency swings and input costs add further volatility. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGCO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$102.12+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$102.12+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$102.12+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$102.12+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$102.12+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$102.12+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$102.12-3.8%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$106.20+2.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-12Distribution$103.28-7.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
