2026-10-25
Federal Signal clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:04 UTC · 28 Oct
The Screen · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Federal Signal Corporation
FSS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.1B · 5,800 employees
Federal Signal Corporation designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and inte…
Not yet scored113.23 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 20:04 UTC · 28 Oct · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price113.23 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.59)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 113.23 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 131.04, over the last year.
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-21
- Options put/call open interest 0.59, read 2026-10-27
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price113.23 USD
Fair value131.04
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-23Read Accumulation116.69-3.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-21Read Markdown113.47-0.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-14Read Accumulation113.57-0.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 6% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-30Read Markdown120.38-5.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Federal Signal Corporation holds its Accumulation at $113.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days |
| Price at the screen | $113.23 |
| Valuation | 25.15 trailing · 20.19 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.23 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 24.85% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 24.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 14.88% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 14.9% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Federal Signal clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Federal Signal clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsMunicipal fleets keep cities running but rarely excite markets
Picture a street sweeper clearing debris after a storm or a fire truck siren cutting through traffic. Federal Signal builds the equipment that makes those everyday operations possible across North America and Europe. Revenue jumped 35 percent recently while return on equity reached 21 percent and margins held at 12 percent, numbers that reflect steady demand from governments and industry.
The shares trade at 21 times forward earnings with a modest buffer to our fair value estimate yet the opportunity rating remains none. Growth looks solid and the ethical screen clears without issue, but unknown competitive durability and exposure to municipal budgets keep conviction low even as analysts cluster around a higher target.
Cyclical spending patterns can inflate recent earnings and compress multiples without signalling lasting value, so the setup offers no clear edge. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 20.2xfairly priced for its growth rate |
| Trailing P/E | 25.1xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 4.64 |
| EPS, forward | 5.78 |
| Revenue growth | +18.7%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 11.7%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 20.6%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 2.73% |
| Dividend yield | 55.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.32minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 2.74comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.23moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 101.19 - 134.51 |
| Market cap | $7.1B |
| Employees | 5,800 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeFSS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Accumulation $116.69
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $116.69
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $116.69
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $116.69
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Accumulation $116.69
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Accumulation · changed $116.69
+0.0% Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Markdown $116.69
+2.8% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Markdown · changed $113.47
-0.1% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-10-14
Accumulation · changed $113.57
-1.3% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-10-02
Markdown $115.09
-4.4% Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- 1 profitable stock with impressive fundamentals and 2 facing headwinds Yahoo Finance · 5d ago
- Federal Signal to Host Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call on October 29, 2026 Yahoo Finance · 13d ago
- Federal Signal (FSS) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know Yahoo Finance · 23d ago
- 3 Reasons FSS Has Explosive Upside Potential Yahoo Finance · 22 Sep 2026
- FSS vs. TSLA: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option? Zacks · 18 Sep 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-21 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-06-01 | Tim Walberg | Republican | sell | 15K–50K |
| 2025-02-07 | Tim Walberg | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $117.23 | -6.2% | $0.15 | $939 | -6.1% |
| 2 months | $114.89 | -4.3% | $0.15 | $958 | -4.2% |
| 3 months | $106.53 | +3.2% | $0.30 | $1,035 | +3.5% |
| 6 months | $111.94 | -1.8% | $0.30 | $985 | -1.5% |
| 1 year | $100.22 | +9.7% | $0.58 | $1,103 | +10.3% |
| 2 years | $83.88 | +31.1% | $1.10 | $1,324 | +32.4% |
| 3 years | $59.11 | +86.0% | $1.54 | $1,886 | +88.6% |
| 5 years | $40.80 | +169.4% | $2.27 | $2,750 | +175.0% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever FSS does next, these words stay.
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