Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Oshkosh Corporation holds its Markdown at $145.85. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 31 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 31 days
Price at the screen
$145.85
Valuation
16.71 trailing · 10.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Construction kit maker stuck in neutral
Picture a fleet of cherry pickers and military trucks parked up on a building site. When the economy is booming they earn their keep, yet right now Oshkosh is running flat. Revenue is flat, margins sit at six percent and return on equity reaches only thirteen percent, so the business is not compounding.
At 10.3 times forward earnings the shares look inexpensive against a fair value thirty seven percent higher, yet zero top line growth flags a classic cyclical trap. Peak earnings often arrive with low multiples precisely because the next downturn is already on the way. The ethical screen clears, which is welcome, but that alone does not turn a mature industrial into a compounder.
Seventeen analysts still lean buy with a median target above the current price, yet construction and vocational demand swing hard with interest rates and government budgets. Currency moves and order delays add further lumps. Without visible growth the discount may simply be fair compensation for the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OSK trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markup$155.23+1.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$153.44+13.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-18Distribution$135.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-03Distribution$135.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$135.05Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
