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The Screen · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Terex Corporation
TEX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.0B · 10,700 employees
Terex Corporation manufactures industrial equipment for materials processing machinery, waste and recycling solutions, mobile elevating work platforms, and equipment for the electric utility industry worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
60.82 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Terex Corporation holds its Markdown at $60.82. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 30 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 30 days
Price at the screen
$60.82
Valuation
29.10 trailing · 10.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.50
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
24.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 24.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.22%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 64.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Machinery Growth Masks a Profitability Problem
Picture a construction site where the cranes and crushers keep selling faster than ever, yet the operator barely covers wages and fuel. Terex shows 41% revenue growth, yet its 2% profit margin and 3% return on equity leave little for shareholders after the cycle turns. A forward multiple of 11.3x looks tempting next to the $98 fair value, but the unknown moat and thin returns explain why the opportunity rating stays at none despite an ethical pass.
Analysts still lean buy with an $80 median target, yet those forecasts often bake in peak-cycle volumes that rarely last. Low returns on equity in heavy equipment typically signal either fierce competition or high fixed costs that bite hard when orders slow. The market already prices in the risks that come with global construction and utility spending.
The real danger sits in treating a low multiple as a bargain when earnings sit near a cyclical high. Any slowdown in infrastructure or recycling projects would expose just how little cushion the current margins provide. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TEX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$60.82-6.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-18Distribution$63.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-03Distribution$63.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$63.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
