Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.25, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price32.82 USD
Fair value22.09
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup31.60+3.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-26Read Accumulation31.90+2.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-21Read Markdown31.28+4.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-21Read Accumulation34.25-4.2% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American Homes 4 Rent holds its Markup at $32.82. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$32.82
Valuation
27.12 trailing · 49.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
American Homes 4 Rent's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 39% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $22.09 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 2.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 48.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $22.09, with a range of $22.09 to $25.40, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
American Homes 4 Rent Sits Well Above Fair Value
Picture a landlord collecting steady rents from single-family homes across the Sun Belt. American Homes 4 Rent owns that portfolio, yet the numbers show a business growing revenue just 3 percent a year and earning a thin 7 percent return on equity.
We pass. The shares trade at 51.7 times forward earnings against our fair value of 21.28 dollars, a 38 percent premium that leaves no margin of safety. A narrow moat and modest profit margins do not justify the stretch, even with a clean ethical screen.
Housing demand can swing with interest rates and migration patterns, so earnings remain exposed to cycles that a high multiple rarely survives. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$31.52-0.3%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$31.60+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$31.60+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup · changed$31.60+1.3%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$31.20+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$31.20+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$31.20-2.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$31.90+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-10-19Markdown$30.97+0.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
