NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,418+0.42%BTC$81,092+6.14%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Residential
Camden Property Trust
CPT · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $11.9B · 1,640 employees
Camden Property Trust, an S&P 500 Company, is a real estate company.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
102.50 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Camden Property Trust holds its Markdown at $102.50. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$102.50
Valuation
33.83 trailing · 94.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.02%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $62.91 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 38.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paying top dollar for flat rents and heavy debt
Everyone needs a roof over their head so apartment landlords should feel like a safe bet. Camden owns 172 US complexes yet trades at 143.9 times forward earnings with zero revenue growth and a profit margin that barely moves the needle. Our fair value sits at half the current price and the ethical screen already fails on debt levels.
That combination leaves almost no margin of safety and explains the avoid call. A narrow moat offers little protection when new supply or rising rates hit the sector. Twenty two analysts sit on hold with a target near the current quote but the gap between price and value remains wide.
Real estate cycles can turn quickly and high leverage amplifies the swings. The numbers simply do not support the valuation on offer today.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CPT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-07-25Markup$112.97+0.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-07-18Markup$112.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-07-03Markup$112.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$112.60Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
