Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 1.48, read 2026-11-08
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price99.44 USD
Fair value58.38
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation98.59+0.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markdown98.46+1.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Distribution109.15-8.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup112.60-11.7% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Camden Property Trust holds its Markup at $99.44. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$99.44
Valuation
33.23 trailing · 134.24 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.02%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Camden Property Trust's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $58.38 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 70.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $58.38, with a range of $58.38 to $67.13, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paying top dollar for flat rents and heavy debt
Everyone needs a roof over their head so apartment landlords should feel like a safe bet. Camden owns 172 US complexes yet trades at 143.9 times forward earnings with zero revenue growth and a profit margin that barely moves the needle. Our fair value sits at half the current price and the ethical screen already fails on debt levels.
That combination leaves almost no margin of safety and explains the avoid call. A narrow moat offers little protection when new supply or rising rates hit the sector. Twenty two analysts sit on hold with a target near the current quote but the gap between price and value remains wide.
Real estate cycles can turn quickly and high leverage amplifies the swings. The numbers simply do not support the valuation on offer today.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CPT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$104.48+3.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$100.680.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$100.69+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$100.69+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$100.69-0.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$100.94+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$100.94-1.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$102.00+3.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-10-21Markdown$98.59+1.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
