Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.73, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price121.69 USD
Fair value80.76
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup116.63+4.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-22Read Distribution116.63+4.3% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 11% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-04Read Markdown131.31-7.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup137.54-11.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mid-America Apartment Communities holds its Markup at $121.69. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 362 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 362 days
Price at the screen
$121.69
Valuation
35.52 trailing · 35.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.34%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.50%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mid-America Apartment Communities's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $80.76 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 1.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $80.76, with a range of $80.76 to $92.87, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
High price for sluggish apartment returns
Picture a landlord charging top rent while occupancy inches up at one percent a year. That is the setup with this residential REIT. Shares sit well above our fair value with a forward multiple of 40.5 times earnings, yet revenue growth barely registers and return on equity is just seven percent. The narrow moat and ethical screen failure on debt levels seal the case to pass.
Analysts see a hold and a median target only modestly above the current price, but the numbers do not support chasing it. Profit margins at eighteen percent look ordinary for the sector and offer little cushion if interest costs rise further. Low growth plus stretched valuation rarely ends well for patient capital.
The real concern sits with leverage. Debt ratios already breach our ethical screen, leaving little room if rents soften or refinancing costs climb. This looks like a classic value trap dressed up as stability. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$117.34+0.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
2026-10-28Markup$116.63+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$116.63+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$116.63+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$116.63+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$116.63+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$116.63+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$116.63-0.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$116.86-1.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
