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The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
Amcor
AMCR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $19.9B · 77,000 employees
Amcor plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of packaging products in Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
43.13 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Amcor holds its Distribution at $43.13. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$43.13
Valuation
18.12 trailing · 9.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.33%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $43.66 fair value, weak competitive moat, 25.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Packaging Stock's Cheap Multiple Masks Trap
Think of the plastic tray holding your supermarket fruit. It gets handled a thousand times yet rarely earns a second look. We pass on Amcor for the same reason. The shares sit just above our fair value with a negative margin of safety, and the name fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
Forward earnings trade at 10.3 times while revenue grew 77 percent, yet the profit margin is only 3 percent and return on equity sits at 9 percent. The moat is weak. Twelve analysts still carry a buy rating and a 48 dollar median target, but those figures ignore the thin returns and the fact that this is a cyclical business.
In cyclical sectors a low multiple often marks peak earnings rather than a bargain. Add the debt screen failure and the case for avoidance is clear. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMCR trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$47.75+8.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-21Distribution$43.94+8.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-18Distribution$40.60+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-17Distribution$40.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-03Distribution$40.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$40.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
