NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
Ball Corporation
BALL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $16.0B · 16,000 employees
Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
60.29 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Ball Corporation holds its Markdown at $60.29. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days
Price at the screen
$60.29
Valuation
17.28 trailing · 13.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.32%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.43%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.23%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $55.86 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 19.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aluminium cans hide a debt trap in plain sight
Think of an aluminium can rolling down a supermarket aisle. It looks sturdy until the pressure builds and the seams start to give. Ball Corporation sits in exactly that spot, a cyclical packaging business whose narrow moat and 7 percent profit margin leave little room for error when raw material costs spike.
We pass because the shares trade 12 percent above our fair value of 55.09 dollars at a forward multiple of 13.9 times that flatters peak earnings. The ethical screen fails on debt ratio, and in a cyclical industry a low multiple is usually a warning rather than a bargain.
Revenue growth of 16 percent cannot mask the leverage risk or the fact that 17 percent ROE rests on a fragile capital structure. Analyst targets at 72 dollars ignore these structural limits. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BALL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$63.59+1.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-22Distribution$62.71+18.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 18.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Distribution$52.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Distribution$52.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$52.92Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
