NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
Avery Dennison
AVY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $12.8B · 35,000 employees
Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
168.77 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Avery Dennison holds its Distribution at $168.77. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$168.77
Valuation
18.49 trailing · 15.09 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.41%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $149.51 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 10.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Labels mask the cycle and the debt
Walk into any supermarket and the labels on the shelves look permanent. Avery Dennison supplies most of them, yet demand still swings hard when factories and retailers cut spending. At 160 dollars against a fair value of 149, the shares already price in perfection while the ethical screen flags excessive debt. We pass.
Revenue growth sits at 7 percent and margins at 8 percent, numbers that look respectable until you remember this is a cyclical packaging business. A forward multiple of 14.4 times feels cheap only if earnings stay at peak. History shows they rarely do, and the narrow moat gives little protection when volumes drop.
High return on equity of 31 percent cannot offset the debt-ratio failure or the risk that current profits prove fleeting. The market may still like the name, but the combination of cyclical exposure and ethical red flags leaves no margin for error. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$183.71+14.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-07-22Distribution$160.41+3.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-07-18Distribution$155.18+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-07-03Distribution$155.18+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$155.18Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
