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The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
Avery Dennison
AVY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $13.8B · 35,000 employees
Avery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
192.59 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 18:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price192.59 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.26, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price192.59 USD
Fair value147.09
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Accumulation175.31+9.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-09-24Read Markdown169.33+13.7% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-22Read Markup183.71+4.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after an 18% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution155.18+24.1% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Avery Dennison holds its Accumulation at $192.59. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$192.59
Valuation
19.96 trailing · 16.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.80
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.41%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Avery Dennison's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 42% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today AVY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $147.09 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 10.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 30.9% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $147.09, with a range of $147.09 to $169.16, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Labels mask the cycle and the debt
Walk into any supermarket and the labels on the shelves look permanent. Avery Dennison supplies most of them, yet demand still swings hard when factories and retailers cut spending. At 160 dollars against a fair value of 149, the shares already price in perfection while the ethical screen flags excessive debt. We pass.
Revenue growth sits at 7 percent and margins at 8 percent, numbers that look respectable until you remember this is a cyclical packaging business. A forward multiple of 14.4 times feels cheap only if earnings stay at peak. History shows they rarely do, and the narrow moat gives little protection when volumes drop.
High return on equity of 31 percent cannot offset the debt-ratio failure or the risk that current profits prove fleeting. The market may still like the name, but the combination of cyclical exposure and ethical red flags leaves no margin for error. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$192.59+6.6%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $203.
2026-10-29Accumulation$180.70+3.1%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$175.31+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$175.31+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$175.31+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$175.31+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$175.31+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$175.31+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$175.31+4.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $200.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
