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The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
International Paper
IP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $18.3B · 62,602 employees
International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa.
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
International Paper holds its Distribution at $34.64. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$34.64
Valuation
N/A trailing · 11.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 82.2
Beta
0.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.76%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $32.75 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +39% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Every box hides a cyclical earnings trap
Think of the cardboard that carries everything from supermarket goods to online orders. International Paper sits at the centre of that flow, with revenue up 13 percent and a forward multiple of 13.4 times. The shares change hands above our fair value yet still clear the ethical screen.
The business posts a 14 percent loss margin and negative 16 percent return on equity, numbers that already signal pressure on returns. A weak moat leaves little room to defend pricing when volumes soften.
Packaging is a classic cyclical sector where low multiples often reflect peak earnings rather than a bargain. Negative profitability already hints that the cycle may be turning, so any apparent value could prove fleeting. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$41.49-5.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-08-02Markup · changed$44.09+31.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 31.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-07-18Distribution$33.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-07-03Distribution$33.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$33.61Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
