NAS10028,437+0.91%S&P7,689+1.58%GOLD$4,138+1.59%BTC$79,577−1.03%VIX16.77+0.96%latest tape · as of 14:03 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
International Paper
IP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $19.3B · 62,602 employees
International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.55, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price35.65 USD
Fair value29.71
Ethical score82.2/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markup35.12+1.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-18Read Distribution34.05+4.7% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Markdown34.00+4.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution34.00+4.9% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 18% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
International Paper holds its Markup at $35.65. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$35.65
Valuation
N/A trailing · 11.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 82.2
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.76%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
International Paper clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 27%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when IP's ethical verdict changes
Today IP passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $29.71 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $29.71, with a range of $29.71 to $34.16, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Every box hides a cyclical earnings trap
Think of the cardboard that carries everything from supermarket goods to online orders. International Paper sits at the centre of that flow, with revenue up 13 percent and a forward multiple of 13.4 times. The shares change hands above our fair value yet still clear the ethical screen.
The business posts a 14 percent loss margin and negative 16 percent return on equity, numbers that already signal pressure on returns. A weak moat leaves little room to defend pricing when volumes soften.
Packaging is a classic cyclical sector where low multiples often reflect peak earnings rather than a bargain. Negative profitability already hints that the cycle may be turning, so any apparent value could prove fleeting. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup · changed$35.12+3.1%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-10-28Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$34.05+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
