Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.09, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price259.17 USD
Fair value196.14
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation236.00+9.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-20Read Markdown236.00+9.8% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-15Read Accumulation230.51+12.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown234.52+10.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Packaging Corporation of America holds its Accumulation at $259.17. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$259.17
Valuation
31.67 trailing · 18.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.62%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.30%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Packaging Corporation of America's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $196.14 fair value estimate, 12.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.1% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $196.14, with a range of $153.00 to $225.56, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Packaging firm priced above its real worth
Every time a warehouse stacks another pallet of boxes, the order book rises and falls with factory output and online orders. Packaging Corporation of America sits right in that cycle, yet the shares trade at a 22 percent premium to our fair value of 182 dollars while carrying a forward multiple of 18.5 times. We pass because the valuation already prices in better days that a cyclical business rarely delivers for long.
Revenue growth of 11 percent and an 8 percent profit margin look respectable on paper, yet the 16 percent return on equity comes with an ethical red flag on debt levels that the screen rejects outright. In packaging the trap is classic: earnings can look peak just when multiples compress, leaving investors with a low multiple that is no bargain at all.
Analyst targets sit higher at 258 dollars, but that consensus ignores both the debt burden and the sector's habit of swinging hard when volumes turn. The combination of stretched valuation, ethical failure and cyclical exposure makes this one to leave alone.
Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PKG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$254.95+8.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236.
2026-10-21Markdown$236.00+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown · changed$236.00+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Accumulation$236.00+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$236.00+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Accumulation$236.00+2.6%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Accumulation$229.96-0.2%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$230.51-1.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $236. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
