Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.87, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price163.10 USD
Fair value136.14
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-30Read Accumulation151.82+7.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown157.45+3.6% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-18Read Markup162.71+0.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-14Read Accumulation147.70+10.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 21% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Target Corporation holds its Markup at $163.10. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 332 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 332 days
Price at the screen
$163.10
Valuation
15.77 trailing · 15.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.35%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Target's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when TGT's ethical verdict changes
Today TGT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited in consumer boycott campaigns for retail distribution of products from companies with operations in Israel and settlements. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $136.14 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 5.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.8% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $136.14, with a range of $115.20 to $156.56, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Target fails where the numbers look fine
Walk into any Target store and the shelves feel stocked with everyday staples that keep shoppers coming back. Yet we are staying away. The ethical screen flags a clear fail on the debt ratio, and a weak moat leaves little protection even with 22% ROE and 7% revenue growth.
Forward earnings sit at 15.6 times alongside a slim 3% profit margin. Thirty four analysts call it a buy with a $130 median target, below the current price, but none of that shifts our view.
The debt issue sits at the heart of the problem and raises real exposure if consumer spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TGT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $163. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-23Markdown$156.63+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $163. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-16Markdown$156.63-0.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $163. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$157.45-3.2%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-18Markup · changed$162.71+10.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $163. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-19Accumulation$147.70+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Accumulation$147.70+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Accumulation$147.70+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 20.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Distribution$122.57+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
