Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.01, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price94.11 USD
Fair value88.64
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup90.26+4.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation87.91+7.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 18% rise in 6 weeks
2026-09-02Read Markup74.61+26.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-08-29Read Distribution74.61+26.1% to today Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $94.11. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$94.11
Valuation
21.05 trailing · 18.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
23.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 23.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.24%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.71%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 23%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today OLLI passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $88.64 fair value estimate, 9.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $88.64, with a range of $68.40 to $101.94, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Discount chain trades cheap but stays unremarkable
Walk into any Ollie's and you see the appeal right away. Excess stock from bigger brands gets cleared at sharp prices, and shoppers keep coming back. The business is growing revenue 14 percent, posting a 9 percent profit margin and delivering 14 percent return on equity, all while trading at a forward multiple of 13.1 times with a 60 percent gap to fair value.
Those figures look solid on paper and the ethical screen raises no flags. Fifteen analysts rate the shares a buy with a median target well above the current 66.51 price. Yet the moat remains unknown and the opportunity rating sits at none, which tells us the market may already price in the steady but unspectacular nature of closeout retail.
Currency moves and shifts in consumer spending on discretionary goods can still bite margins quickly. Peak earnings often sit behind low multiples in this sector, and without clearer evidence of durable advantage the valuation gap may close slowly or not at all.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OLLI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup · changed$90.26-2.6%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134.
2026-10-25Accumulation$92.67-3.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134.
2026-10-18Accumulation$95.56+8.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134.
2026-10-02Markup$87.91+17.8%Entry 13
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134.
2026-09-02Markup · changed$74.61+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Distribution$74.61+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Distribution$74.61+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Distribution$74.61+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $134. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
