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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Costco
COST · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $403.6B · 341,000 employees
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Chin…
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Costco holds its Distribution at $910.18. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$910.18
Valuation
45.81 trailing · 40.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.3
Beta
0.86
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.46%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.18%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $776.28 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 21.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 35 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Costco's Discounts Don't Add Up for Investors
Imagine walking into Costco, rolling carts in tow, looking for the best deals. You're there to save, but you pay a membership fee to shop. Costco's model does the same for investors - it aims to deliver savings, but the membership fee here is the price you pay per share. At $933.51, Costco's share price is 17% higher than our fair value estimation of $776.58. This discount retail giant stands out for its 22% revenue growth, but that doesn't justify the premium its shares command in the market.
The market seems to be placing a high bet on Costco’s future with a forward P/E ratio of 41.2x, which values the company well above its historical performance and current profitability. With a profit margin of just 3% and a ROE of 29%, the numbers suggest that while Costco is efficient with its capital, the high valuation might be a stretch given the slim margins.
Despite passing our ethical screen and offering a broad global footprint, the risk here is that the market is overestimating Costco's ability to maintain its current growth trajectory. The weak moat indicates that there's nothing fundamentally unique keeping competitors at bay, and with 35 analysts giving it a 'buy' rating and a median target of $1100, the crowd seems to agree. But investors should remember that overvaluation can lead to a rude awakening when the numbers don't add up. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COST trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-18Distribution$910.18+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$933.51-0.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-25Markup$935.03-3.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markup$971.87+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Markup$971.87+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$971.87Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
