An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Walmart Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $109.47
Walmart holds its Distribution at $109.47.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days
Price
$109.47
Valuation
38.55 trailing · 33.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.0
Beta
0.60
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $101.17 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 7.30% revenue growth.
Read at
$109.47
38.55 P/E · 33.32 fwd
Our fair value
$101.17
8% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$140.00
+28% to current
Target low $81.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $155.00
▲ current $109.47 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$109.47
you are here
Conservative
$72.90
-33%
Analyst avg
$140.00
+28%
Our fair value
$101.17
-8%
Analyst high
$155.00
+42%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
7.30%
Profit margin
3.14%
Debt to equity
74.82
Analyst consensus
Buy · 41 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 23.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 7.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Walmart Looks Familiar Yet Trades Well Beyond Value
Walk any aisle in a supercentre and the scale feels unmatched, yet the share price sits eleven percent above our fair value with a forward multiple of thirty four point eight times earnings. Revenue edges up seven percent while margins stay thin at three percent and the moat is rated weak, so the numbers do not justify paying up even though the ethical screen clears.
We pass because the valuation leaves no margin of safety and the business shows no durable edge that would support thirty four times forward earnings. Return on equity reaches twenty four percent, yet that return sits inside a defensive retail model that still lacks pricing power or switching costs strong enough to protect it.
The main risk is simple overpayment. A modest slowdown in consumer spending or renewed competition could compress multiples quickly, turning today's premium into tomorrow's disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
WMT trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$118.88+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (42 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $138. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Distribution$118.88+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$118.88Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
