The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (33 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $131. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Target Corporation TGT
Outside both standards
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States.
read at $140.34
Target Corporation holds its Markup at $140.34.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 263 days |
| Price | $140.34 |
| Valuation | 18.56 trailing · 15.72 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 0.98 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $154.28 fair value, weak competitive moat, 6.70% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
| Revenue growth | 6.70% |
| Profit margin | 3.24% |
| Debt to equity | 117.55 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 34 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 34.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Fail
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 11.4% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Target fails where the numbers look fine
Walk into any Target store and the shelves feel stocked with everyday staples that keep shoppers coming back. Yet we are staying away. The ethical screen flags a clear fail on the debt ratio, and a weak moat leaves little protection even with 22% ROE and 7% revenue growth.
Forward earnings sit at 15.6 times alongside a slim 3% profit margin. Thirty four analysts call it a buy with a $130 median target, below the current price, but none of that shifts our view.
The debt issue sits at the heart of the problem and raises real exposure if consumer spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 15.7x expensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 18.6x reasonably valued |
| Revenue growth | 6.7% slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 3.2% barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 22.0% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 1.18 a meaningful debt load worth watching |
| Current ratio | 0.93 below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.98 steadier than the market |
| Market cap | $63.7B |
| Employees | 415,000 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on TGT
- › 5 Solid Stocks to Boost Your Portfolio as Retail Sales Continue to Surge Zacks · 16d ago
- › Target customers lose a big perk in August TheStreet · 17d ago
- › Target (TGT) Advances While Market Declines: Some Information for Investors Zacks · 17d ago
- › GameStop Survived The Trap Screen. The Growth Didn't Trefis · 17d ago
- › Costco makes a silent gas change that members will love TheStreet · 17d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in TGT's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
TGT trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Cornell Brian C | Exec Officer | Sale | 50,000 | $6,492,623 |
| 2026-03-17 | Liegel Matthew A | Chief Accounting Officer | Sale | 2,053 | $240,593 |
| 2025-06-10 | Liegel Matthew A | Chief Accounting Officer | Sale | 2,044 | $206,245 |
| 2026-04-07 | SYLVESTER CARA A | Officer | 5,809 | · | |
| 2026-04-07 | VEMANA PRATABKUMAR | Officer | 3,634 | · | |
| 2026-04-07 | LIEGEL MATTHEW A | Officer | 1,337 | · | |
| 2026-04-07 | FIDDELKE MICHAEL J. | Officer | 11,250 | · | |
| 2026-04-07 | ROATH LISA R | Officer | 2,443 | · | |
| 2026-04-07 | KREMER MELISSA K | Officer | 7,259 | · | |
| 2026-04-07 | CORNELL BRIAN C | Officer and Director | 50,777 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $117.33 | +9.1% | $1.14 | $1,100 | +10.0% |
| 2 months | $120.75 | +6.0% | $1.14 | $1,069 | +6.9% |
| 3 months | $114.67 | +11.6% | $1.14 | $1,126 | +12.6% |
| 6 months | $95.10 | +34.6% | $2.28 | $1,370 | +37.0% |
| 1 year | $96.54 | +32.5% | $4.56 | $1,373 | +37.3% |
| 2 years | $137.42 | -6.9% | $9.04 | $997 | -0.3% |
| 3 years | $113.67 | +12.6% | $13.44 | $1,244 | +24.4% |
| 5 years | $200.18 | -36.1% | $21.36 | $746 | -25.4% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.