DG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $27.5B · 194,000 employees
Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
124.57 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 08:38 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Dollar General holds its Markup at $124.57. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$124.57
Valuation
16.18 trailing · 15.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
50.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $122.61 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 5.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bargain hunters meet a debt trap
Walk into any Dollar General and the shelves tell a simple story. Everyday items move in volume yet the business behind them carries too much debt to pass a basic ethical screen. We pass for that reason alone.
Revenue edges forward at just 3 percent while margins sit at 4 percent. Return on equity looks respectable at 19 percent but a weak moat and forward earnings multiple of 15.7 times leave little room for error when the fair value sits only a few dollars above the current price.
The real concern is leverage. High debt loads amplify any slowdown in footfall or rise in costs, and the market already prices the shares near analyst targets. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Accumulation$123.41+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Distribution$123.41+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$123.41+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$123.41+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Distribution$123.41-2.8%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Distribution$126.94+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Distribution$126.94+0.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$125.75+21.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 21.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-07-18Distribution$103.70+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
