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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Dollar General
DG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $29.6B · 194,000 employees
Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
132.69 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 18:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price132.69 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read markup
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.17)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 132.69 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 126.32, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.17, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price132.69 USD
Fair value126.32
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation124.37+6.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution124.37+6.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-08-26Read Accumulation123.41+7.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 19% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution103.70+28.0% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dollar General holds its Markup at $132.69. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$132.69
Valuation
17.45 trailing · 16.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
50.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Dollar General's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 51% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when DG's ethical verdict changes
Today DG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $126.32 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 5.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bargain hunters meet a debt trap
Walk into any Dollar General and the shelves tell a simple story. Everyday items move in volume yet the business behind them carries too much debt to pass a basic ethical screen. We pass for that reason alone.
Revenue edges forward at just 3 percent while margins sit at 4 percent. Return on equity looks respectable at 19 percent but a weak moat and forward earnings multiple of 15.7 times leave little room for error when the fair value sits only a few dollars above the current price.
The real concern is leverage. High debt loads amplify any slowdown in footfall or rise in costs, and the market already prices the shares near analyst targets. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Accumulation$134.36+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143.
2026-10-18Accumulation$134.36+8.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $143.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
2026-08-27Accumulation$123.41+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Distribution$123.41+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$123.41+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$123.41+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Distribution$123.41-2.8%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
