Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-02
Options put/call open interest 0.50, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price200.13 USD
Fair value224.74
Ethical score85.3/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markdown217.23-7.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-08-07Read Accumulation219.22-8.7% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup205.10-2.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Every chart read we post on this name lands here. Each one says which way we lean, how firmly, and the line that would prove us wrong. When price settles a read, we add a new entry and say plainly how it went.
Entries are point-in-time and never edited. Times in UTC. Not advice.
2 Nov19:49 UTC
Read30-minute chartOpen
↓
Down · slight
Wrong if a 30m close lands over 210.00.
Last lower high210.00
Channel low200.00
NVDA 30m, taken 14:48 NY. Price is 204.29, inside a falling channel from the 28 Oct high, in the upper half just under the top line after this morning's push to 210.00 failed. The last lower high at 210.00 is the line, and a 30m close above it ends the channel. While it holds, let's see if sellers keep pulling price back toward the lower line near 200. Not advice.
Chart as posted, 2 Nov 19:48 UTC. 30 minute candles.
31 Oct06:53 UTC
OutcomeDaily chartWrong
Settles the daily read of 28 Oct, 09:37 UTC. Friday 30 Oct closed at 204.64, under the 210.18 box floor. Low 200.92. See that read ↓
Update on NVDA. The box read was wrong. The 222.19 top was never closed over, but Friday closed at 204.64, under 210.18, and traded down to 200.92, past 208.93 and the 200-day area near 204. Now 210.18 is the lid. A daily close back over it would say the break failed. Results are on 17 Nov. Is 200 the level that gets defended? Not financial advice.
28 Oct10:26 UTC
OutcomeDaily chartWrong
Settles the hourly read of 25 Oct, 01:39 UTC. The short idea was wrong: Monday ran to 217.75, through the 213.65 exit line. See that read ↓
↔
Sideways · slight, the daily box still holds
Wrong if two daily closes land outside 212.85 to 219.62.
Exit line hit213.65
Mon high217.75
Tue close217.94
Tue high219.19
Box212.85 to 219.62
I leaned short on the hourly Sunday, out above 213.65, and that was wrong. Monday ran to 217.75 and it closed Tuesday at 217.94. The bigger box on the daily is still 212.85 to 219.62, and Tuesday's high of 219.19 stopped just short of the top. Let's see if it closes over 219.62 or gets turned away again. Not advice.
Chart as posted, 28 Oct 10:26 UTC. Daily candles to the 27 Oct close.
28 Oct09:37 UTC
ReadDaily chartWrong
NVDA at 217.94 boxed in, who wins before 17 Nov earnings?
↔
Sideways · moderate
Wrong if a daily close lands outside 210.18 to 222.19.
Box top222.19
Box bottom210.18
Next up233.21
Next down208.93
6 Oct high243.37
NVDA closed Tuesday at 217.94, in a box since the sell-off from 243.37 on 6 Oct, which is about 10% lower. The top of the box is 222.19 (21 Oct high) and the bottom is 210.18 (23 Oct low). Price is under its 20-day (224.44) and 50-day (222.16) averages and over its 200-day at 203.99 and its 20-week average at 215.15. The weekly chart is still up, but the daily has been making lower highs, so the two timeframes disagree.
Risk event: earnings are expected on 17 Nov (yfinance estimate, about three weeks away). Gaps over earnings can skip every level below.
If it chops (most likely). Price keeps moving between 210.18 and 222.19. Nothing to do in the middle. Let price come to the levels.
If it goes up (less likely, about a one in three chance). A daily close over 222.19 would clear the last lower high and the 50-day average. Next is 233.21, the 28 Sep high, then 243.37.
If it goes down (also less likely, about a one in three chance). A daily close under 210.18 would break the October low. Next is 208.93, the 14 Sep low, then the 200-day area near 204.
Which side of the box breaks first, before the results? Not financial advice.
Settled 31 Oct, 06:53 UTC: wrong. Friday 30 Oct closed at 204.64, under the 210.18 box floor. Low 200.92. This entry stays as written.
Chart as posted, 28 Oct 09:37 UTC. Daily candles to the 27 Oct close.
25 Oct03:59 UTC
ReadDaily chartOpen · box intact at the 27 Oct close
↔
Sideways · slight
Wrong if two daily closes land outside 212.85 to 219.62.
Box top219.62
Box bottom212.85
Sessions in box6
On the daily, Nvidia is boxed between 212.85 and 219.62 for 6 sessions. The swings still point up and the weekly and monthly are rising, but the levels and mood lean down. That's a split read, so no trade from me until two closes land outside the box. A break above 219.62 favours the bigger uptrend. Not advice.
Chart as posted, 25 Oct 03:59 UTC. Daily candles to the 23 Oct close.
25 Oct01:39 UTC
ReadHourly chartWrong
↓
Down · strong
Wrong if an hourly candle closes above 212.75.
Bounce zone211.97 to 212.75
Out above213.65
First target208.51
Nvidia's hourly is heavy, with the 4h, daily and weekly all falling and the push picking up. It's stuck between a floor and a ceiling for now. My plan: a short on a bounce into 211.97 to 212.75, out above 213.65, first target 208.51. If it closes back above 212.75, I'm wrong and I step aside. Not advice.
Settled 28 Oct, 10:26 UTC: wrong. Monday ran to 217.75, through 213.65. 208.51 was never reached. This entry stays as written.
Chart as posted, 25 Oct 01:39 UTC. Hourly candles to the 23 Oct close.
Oldest entry 25 Oct 2026
A read stays open until price settles it. Held and Hit mean the line we named did its job. Wrong means it did not. Grey means nothing triggered.
Also posted on our social channels.
The full research record, in depth, below
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Nvidia holds its Markdown at $200.13. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$200.13
Valuation
27.01 trailing · 13.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.3
Beta
2.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.76%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.07%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Nvidia clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 5%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NVDA's ethical verdict changes
Today NVDA passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 11% discount to our $224.74 fair value, strong competitive moat, 105.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $224.74, with a range of $162.00 to $258.45, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 106%-growth business trading at just 13.4x forward earnings, with a strong competitive moat and minimal debt. That is an 11% discount to our $224.74 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 58 analysts rate it Strong Buy with a $315.00 average target, about 57% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NVDA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$204.64-5.8%Entry 18
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Markdown$217.23+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$217.23-3.5%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11Accumulation$225.07+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Accumulation$225.07+3.8%Entry 14
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-26Accumulation$216.85+0.0%Entry 13
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Accumulation$216.85+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Accumulation$216.85+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Accumulation$216.85+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Accumulation$216.85+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (59 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $299. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
