Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 1.40, read 2026-10-18
Ethical passes the values gate
Price562.23 USD
Fair value384.17
Ethical score90.2/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup630.63-10.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 34% rise in 4 weeks
2026-09-03Read Distribution469.46+19.8% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Markup466.38+20.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Advanced Micro Devices holds its Markup at $562.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$562.23
Valuation
145.62 trailing · 36.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 90.2
Beta
2.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.52%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.41%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.62%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Advanced Micro Devices clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 5%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-17. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $384.17 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 50.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 31.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 50 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
AMD's High Valuation in a Cyclical Market
Imagine semiconductors as the engines of the digital age, and AMD is one of the key manufacturers. At its current price of $469.45, our fair value sits at $370.35, marking an overvaluation of -21%. Despite the sector's cyclical nature, AMD has been riding high on impressive revenue growth of 50% and a robust profit margin of 16%. However, investors must not overlook the cyclical value trap, where peak earnings can distort the true value, especially with AMD's relatively narrow moat.
Why AMD stands out is its consistent revenue growth and profitability, all while passing our ethical screen. The market consensus rating is a strong buy, with a median target price of $610, which is significantly higher than our fair value estimate. However, considering the cyclical industry's pitfalls, this might be a case where market optimism is ahead of prudent valuation.
Risk lies in the industry's inherent cyclicality. With a forward P/E of 30.4x and a ROE of 10%, investors might be paying a premium for growth that could be ephemeral in the cyclical semiconductor market. The high consensus target price suggests confidence, but given the cyclical nature of the sector, this enthusiasm might be misplaced. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-18Markup$562.23-10.8%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11Markup$630.63+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$630.63+34.3%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 34.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-04Markup$521.95+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$521.95+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$521.95+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$521.95+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$521.95+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$521.95+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 117% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (48 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $472. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
