NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,384−0.08%BTC$76,220+0.09%VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
Texas Instruments
TXN · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $236.5B · 33,000 employees
Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
258.92 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Texas Instruments holds its Markdown at $258.92. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$258.92
Valuation
39.29 trailing · 24.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.79%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $214.97 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 22.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 17.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 31 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Texas Instruments: Failing the Ethical Gauge in a Cyclical Storm
Imagine electronics designers worldwide racing to create the next gadget, and Texas Instruments is their go-to for semiconductors. The company operates in a highly cyclical industry, experiencing robust revenue growth of 23%, with a profit margin of 31% and a robust return on equity rating of 35%, highlighting its strong competitive moat. However, the market's optimism has the stock priced at a substantial 19% premium over our fair value estimate, which is a red flag in a cyclical industry.
The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry poses a special risk. Currently, the company's valuation is high, which is typically a warning sign rather than a bargain, especially during peak earnings periods in such industries. A low multiple following a period of high earnings could indicate a cyclical value trap.
Unfortunately, despite its strong financial performance, Texas Instruments fails our ethical screen due to a concerning debt ratio. This is a critical factor in our evaluation process, as sustainable practices are as important as financial success. The consensus rating from analysts is a 'buy' with a median target price of $340, yet it's essential to consider not just the potential returns but the ethical standards of an investment.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TXN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285.
2026-07-22Markup$284.02+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$284.02+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$284.02+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$284.02-0.4%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$285.06+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$285.06+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$285.06+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$285.06+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$285.06Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
