Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.52, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price185.41 USD
Fair value133.04
Ethical score77.5/100
RatingQUALITY, FULLY VALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Accumulation182.97+1.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-28Read Markdown178.40+3.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-10-18Read Distribution178.40+3.9% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 17% slide in 15 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup215.94-14.1% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Qualcomm holds its Accumulation at $185.41. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-29
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$185.41
Valuation
21.46 trailing · 18.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 77.5
Beta
1.65
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
9.24%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.70%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.44%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Qualcomm clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 30%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when QCOM's ethical verdict changes
Today QCOM passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for operating significant R&D centres in Israel focused on semiconductor and wireless technology. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads QUALITY, FULLY VALUED: it trades above our $133.04 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 28.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 30 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Qualcomm's Slick Tech in a Cyclical Slump
Imagine a world without Qualcomm's wireless tech; smartphones would be a lot less smart. Qualcomm's foundational technologies are the underpinnings of modern connectivity, from gaming to automotive systems. It operates through three segments - Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, Qualcomm Technology Licensing, and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives - each driving innovation in their respective fields. Why it stands out? Despite a cyclical downturn with revenue growth dipping by 4%, Qualcomm's moat remains strong, and its ethical practices pass our screen.
However, with a forward P/E of 15.8x and a market price of $160.74 against our fair value of $130.60, Qualcomm is currently overvalued by 19%. Despite the strong profit margins and ROE, the cyclical nature of the industry means that these metrics are likely near their peaks, which often precedes a cyclical value trap. This is not a sign of a bargain but a warning to be cautious.
Risks are inherent in the cyclical tech sector, and Qualcomm is no exception. With a consensus hold rating from 30 analysts and a median target of $175, the market seems to share our caution. The performance is heavily tied to industry cycles, and betting on a quick recovery is risky. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
QCOM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$178.40+0.0%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$178.40+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-10-11Markup$201.97+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-10-02Markup$201.97+25.7%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 25.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-08-29Markup$160.74-3.7%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-28Markup$166.97+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$166.97+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$166.97+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
