An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and…
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $260.01
Arm Holdings Plc ADR holds its Markup at $260.01.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days
Price
$260.01
Valuation
305.89 trailing · 84.53 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
3.77
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$260.01
305.89 P/E · 84.53 fwd
Our fair value
$143.00
45% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$260.00
-0% to current
Target low $125.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $500.00
▲ current $260.01 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$260.01
you are here
Conservative
$130.00
-50%
Analyst avg
$260.00
-0%
Our fair value
$143.00
-45%
Analyst high
$500.00
+92%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
20.10%
Profit margin
18.37%
Debt to equity
5.93
Analyst consensus
Buy · 37 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Arm's Chip Blueprints Fetch Premium Prices
Every smartphone and server chip traces back to a set of licensed designs from Arm. The company sits at the centre of global semiconductor output, licensing its intellectual property to almost every major chipmaker and collecting royalties on each unit shipped. Revenue growth sits at 20 percent, the moat is wide, and the ethical screen clears without issue.
Yet the shares trade at 86.8 times forward earnings, more than 80 percent above our fair value of 143 dollars. Profit margins of 18 percent and a 12 percent return on equity do not justify the gap when the stock already prices in years of flawless execution. The analyst herd calls it a buy with a 260-dollar median target, but the numbers show a clear absence of margin of safety.
Semiconductors move in sharp cycles. Even a wide-moat licensor can see royalty streams slow when handset and server demand turns. A high multiple leaves little room for any slowdown, turning today's premium into tomorrow's trap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-28 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-28Markup$260.01+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$260.01+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$260.01+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$260.01-2.7%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$267.19+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$267.19+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$267.19+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$267.19-29.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 29.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278.
2026-07-18Markup$380.81+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278.
2026-07-17Markup$380.81+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming ARM
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
7 Feb2025
Tim Walberg
Republican
buy
1K–15K
2026-04-13
Ro Khanna
Democrat
Purchase
1K–15K
2026-04-13
Ro Khanna
Democrat
Purchase
1K–15K
10 Feb2026
Tim Walberg
Republican
sell
1K–15K
1 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$212.65
+44.5%
·
$1,445
+44.5%
2 months
$148.93
+106.3%
·
$2,063
+106.3%
3 months
$115.12
+166.9%
·
$2,669
+166.9%
6 months
$136.14
+125.7%
·
$2,257
+125.7%
1 year
$140.63
+118.5%
·
$2,185
+118.5%
2 years
$139.91
+119.6%
·
$2,196
+119.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ARM does next, these words stay.
Arm Holdings Plc ADR · ARM · Markup · $260.01
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically