NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,384−0.08%BTC$76,220+0.09%VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
Arm Holdings Plc ADR
ARM · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $271.5B · 9,584 employees
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and…
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Arm Holdings Plc ADR holds its Markdown at $254.18. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$254.18
Valuation
259.37 trailing · 82.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
3.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
4.27%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 4.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.21%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
37.85%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 37.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.26%
Below 5%
Only 2.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 40.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 39 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Silicon Surge in the Slopes of a Cyclical Peak
Imagine every tech gadget, from smartphones to supercomputers, powered by Arm's blueprints. It's not just an empire, but an architectural marvel of technology. Arm Holdings, with its robust portfolio of intellectual property for CPUs and graphics processing units, stands out as the cornerstone of silicon innovation. Its forward-thinking approach has seen its revenues climb at a 22% growth rate, a testament to its market grip and the ongoing demand for its technology.
However, despite its wide moat and ethically sound practices, Arm's stellar performance cannot mask the cyclical nature of its industry. While the forward P/E of 78.0x and our fair value of $148.93 suggest a lofty market valuation, the 22% revenue growth and 20% profit margin may be masking the risks. This is a classic illustration of a cyclical value-trap, where peak earnings and a low multiple can be more of a warning than a bargain. The market is pricing Arm Holdings like it's on the cusp of a technological revolution, but the reality is that it may be sitting atop a cyclical peak.
Risk here is multifaceted, primarily due to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and the potential overvaluation. While the company has a WIDE moat and passes our ethical screen, investors should be mindful of the risks associated with chasing high-flying stocks in cyclical sectors. The consensus buy rating and median target of $272 from 39 analysts may not fully account for the cyclical risks that could dampen Arm's future prospects. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARM trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup$238.78-8.2%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278.
2026-07-28Markup$260.01+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$260.01+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$260.01+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$260.01-2.7%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$267.19+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$267.19+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$267.19+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$267.19-29.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 29.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278.
2026-07-18Markup$380.81+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (38 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $278.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.