Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.79, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price326.08 USD
Fair value350.85
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation326.08+0.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% slide in 7 days
2026-10-25Read Markdown344.33-5.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation352.81-7.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 9% slide in 14 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown385.73-15.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Broadcom holds its Accumulation at $326.08. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 172 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 172 days
Price at the screen
$326.08
Valuation
44.06 trailing · 17.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.48
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.63%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.54%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Broadcom's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $350.85 fair value, strong competitive moat, 85.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $350.85, with a range of $194.29 to $403.48, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
High-Flying Chipmaker with Heavy Debt
Imagine the world's tech gadgets and servers as a gigantic puzzle, Broadcom provides the crucial pieces. Broadcom (AVGO) designs and supplies semiconductor devices and infrastructure software that power the digital age, making it a key player in the tech industry. Its forward P/E of 18.6x might suggest a bargain, but in a cyclical sector like semiconductors, high revenue growth and profit margins are no guarantee against a cyclical value trap.
However, despite the strong moat and a consensus strong buy from analysts with a median target of $530, we can't overlook the ethical red flag. Broadcom fails our ethical screen, primarily due to its high debt ratio. This could be a significant risk factor, especially in times of economic stress, when debt can weigh heavily on a company’s ability to navigate market downturns.
In conclusion, while Broadcom's numbers are impressive, the high debt levels pose considerable risk, particularly in a cyclical market. This is why, despite the allure of its current growth, we must give Broadcom an avoid rating. The market might be pricing it as a star performer, but the ethical and financial risks suggest caution. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVGO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480.
2026-10-25Markdown · changed$344.33+0.0%Entry 18
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480.
2026-10-18Accumulation$344.33-2.4%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480.
2026-10-02Markdown$352.81-3.1%Entry 15
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. Since the last review it entered the Tech 100.
2026-09-02Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 14
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 13
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
