2026-10-25
National Fuel Gas clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:07 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
National Fuel Gas Company
NFG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.6B · 2,322 employees
National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company.
Not yet scored78.63 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 20:07 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price78.63 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.06)
- Last reviewed3 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $71.60 to $82.34, base estimate $71.60 (screen dated 2026-11-03).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.06, read 2026-11-03
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price78.63 USD
Fair value71.60
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup79.85-1.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-10-21Read Distribution79.85-1.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown76.26+3.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 8 weeks
2026-08-06Read Accumulation82.47-4.7% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
National Fuel Gas Company holds its Markup at $78.63. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 374 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 374 days |
| Price at the screen | $78.63 |
| Valuation | 11.12 trailing · 10.75 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.41 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 32.49% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 32.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 2.57% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 2.6% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
National Fuel Gas clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
National Fuel Gas clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $71.60 fair value estimate, 1.10% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $71.60, with a range of $71.60 to $82.34, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsGas bills and wells mask a classic trap
Picture a utility meter clicking away in a cold winter while drillers chase the same molecule at whatever price the spot market allows. National Fuel Gas blends those worlds, yet the low forward multiple and decent returns on equity sit squarely inside a cyclical industry where today's earnings peak often marks the moment multiples compress hardest. We pass because the modest margin of safety offers no cushion once volumes or prices roll over.
Revenue has lifted 18 percent and margins sit at 27 percent, numbers that look solid next to the ethical screen clearing cleanly. Two analysts still carry buy ratings with a median target near 98 dollars, but those targets rest on assumptions that rarely survive a full down-cycle in integrated energy.
The real warning is the value-trap pattern itself: a low multiple on peak earnings is not a bargain, it is a signal that the market already prices in the next reversal. Currency, regulatory and commodity swings add further volatility that a thin 2 percent safety margin cannot absorb. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 10.8xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 11.1xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 7.18 |
| EPS, forward | 7.43 |
| Revenue growth | +1.1%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 26.9%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 19.6%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -0.33% |
| Dividend yield | 276.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.91moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 3.20comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 0.41barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.06% |
| 52-week range | 75.03 - 97.06 |
| Market cap | $7.6B |
| Employees | 2,322 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeNFG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04
Markup $78.63
-1.2% Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Markup $79.55
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Markup $79.55
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Markup $79.55
-1.2% Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Markup $80.53
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Markup $80.53
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Markup $80.53
+0.9% Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Markup · changed $79.85
+0.0% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Distribution · changed $79.85
+1.5% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-10-14
Markdown $78.66
+3.1% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $79.44 | -2.8% | · | $972 | -2.8% |
| 2 months | $93.95 | -17.8% | · | $822 | -17.8% |
| 3 months | $93.21 | -17.2% | $0.54 | $834 | -16.6% |
| 6 months | $81.60 | -5.4% | $1.07 | $959 | -4.1% |
| 1 year | $80.04 | -3.6% | $2.14 | $991 | -0.9% |
| 2 years | $53.14 | +45.2% | $4.20 | $1,531 | +53.1% |
| 3 years | $47.75 | +61.7% | $6.18 | $1,746 | +74.6% |
| 5 years | $47.16 | +63.7% | $9.90 | $1,847 | +84.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NFG does next, these words stay.
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