Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-10
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price40.26 USD
Fair value68.73
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Markdown47.03-14.4% to today ✓
2026-08-04Read Distribution47.76-15.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown50.25-19.9% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Las Vegas Sands holds its Markdown at $40.26. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 60 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 60 days
Price at the screen
$40.26
Valuation
15.60 trailing · 11.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.82
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Casinos & Gaming
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 71% discount to our $68.73 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 70.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +49% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Macau Casinos Look Cheap But Fail Ethics
Picture the ferry from Hong Kong pulling into Macau, packed with day trippers chasing the slots and baccarat tables inside Venetian and Parisian resorts. Las Vegas Sands runs those integrated casinos across Macau and Singapore, a business that posted 25% revenue growth and a 13% profit margin last year.
We pass anyway. The 12.4x forward earnings multiple and 90% ROE look attractive on paper, yet the stock fails our business activity screen outright. Moderate moat or not, that single ethical breach ends the conversation before valuation enters the room.
Cyclical demand tied to Chinese travel policy adds real volatility, and any slowdown in high-roller volumes would hit earnings fast. Nineteen analysts still lean buy with a $67 median target, but the ethical red flag overrides the apparent margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LVS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$47.03-1.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $59.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-07-18Markdown$50.25+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-07-03Markdown$50.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$50.25Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
