Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.46, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price82.38 USD
Fair value99.65
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup82.38+0.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 4 days
2026-11-01Read Distribution74.66+10.3% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 16% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-17Read Markdown88.42-6.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-18Read Accumulation101.50-18.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Wynn Resorts holds its Markup at $82.38. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 298 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 298 days
Price at the screen
$82.38
Valuation
18.63 trailing · 16.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Casinos & Gaming
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Wynn Resorts does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in gambling, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when WYNN's ethical verdict changes
Today WYNN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $99.65 fair value, 6.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $99.65, with a range of $91.80 to $114.60, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Wynn pulls in high rollers but fails the screen
Wynn Resorts runs the flashiest casinos from Macau to Boston, where every spin of the wheel and hotel suite keeps the cash registers humming. Revenue is up 9 percent and the forward multiple sits at a reasonable 18 times, yet none of that matters once the ethical screen flags the core business of gambling.
We pass for one clear reason. The activity screen exists to keep us out of sectors that profit directly from addictive behaviour, and Wynn fails it outright. Analyst targets above 130 dollars and a 30 percent gap to our own fair value make no difference when the ethical line is crossed.
Cyclical travel swings and thin 5 percent margins add further uncertainty in a sector that can turn fast. The moat remains unknown and the price offers no protection against those swings.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WYNN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$82.38+6.1%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Distribution$77.68+4.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$74.66+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$74.66+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$72.73+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$72.73+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$72.73-3.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$75.60+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-10-21Markdown$75.60+0.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $136.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
