Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.35, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price146.57 USD
Fair value143.36
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation141.29+3.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 3 weeks
2026-09-21Read Distribution133.33+9.9% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 11% slide in 2 weeks
2026-09-06Read Markdown150.00-2.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-06Read Markup149.38-1.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 12% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vail Resorts, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $146.57. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$146.57
Valuation
37.37 trailing · 22.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Vail Resorts, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in gambling, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MTN's ethical verdict changes
Today MTN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 2.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near the screened price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Ski slopes carry a casino ethical block
Picture a family heading to the mountains for fresh air and winter sports. Vail operates those resorts yet sits in a Resorts & Casinos category that triggers our ethical screen on the casino keyword. We pass for that reason alone, regardless of any other merits.
The shares trade at a 4 percent premium to our fair value with revenue already down 7 percent and a forward multiple of 23.4 times. Return on equity sits at 17 percent but profit margins are thin at 6 percent, leaving little room for slippage in a cyclical leisure business.
Analyst targets cluster near current levels while the ethical failure remains non-negotiable. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MTN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Accumulation$150.97-1.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155.
2026-10-18Accumulation$152.57+8.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155.
2026-10-02Distribution$141.29+0.6%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155.
2026-09-24Distribution$140.43+5.3%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$150.00+0.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$149.38+12.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155.
2026-07-18Accumulation$133.31+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $155.
2026-07-03Accumulation$133.31+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.