Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 1.42, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price28.06 USD
Fair value42.19
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markdown28.47-1.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution31.52-11.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 28% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Markdown43.69-35.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-05Read Markup45.66-38.5% to today Markdown gives way to Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
MGM Resorts holds its Markdown at $28.06. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$28.06
Valuation
17.57 trailing · 15.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Casinos & Gaming
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
MGM Resorts does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in gambling, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MGM's ethical verdict changes
Today MGM does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 50% discount to our $42.19 fair value, weak competitive moat, 1.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 50.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +71% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casinos hide thin margins behind bright lights
Think of MGM as a busy casino floor where the lights and crowds create excitement yet very little sticks once costs are paid. We pass because the business fails our ethical screen on gambling activities and the figures show a weak moat, 1% profit margins and just 4% revenue growth at a 20.6 times forward multiple.
Return on equity of 13% offers little comfort for a cyclical operator in resorts and casinos, and the modest margin of safety to our fair value does not change the call. Analyst targets sit nearby yet bring no extra edge once the ethical issue is factored in.
Sector swings may lift results for a spell, but the combination of low profitability and the clear ethical fail keeps us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MGM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$28.47+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$28.47+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown · changed$28.47+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$28.47+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$28.47+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$28.47+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$28.47+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$28.47-3.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$29.40-6.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 27.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
