The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
MGM Resorts
MGM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $10.4B · 60,000 employees
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
40.73 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
MGM Resorts holds its Markdown at $40.73. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days
Price at the screen
$40.73
Valuation
24.68 trailing · 19.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Casinos & Gaming
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $47.76 fair value, weak competitive moat, 1.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casinos hide thin margins behind bright lights
Think of MGM as a busy casino floor where the lights and crowds create excitement yet very little sticks once costs are paid. We pass because the business fails our ethical screen on gambling activities and the figures show a weak moat, 1% profit margins and just 4% revenue growth at a 20.6 times forward multiple.
Return on equity of 13% offers little comfort for a cyclical operator in resorts and casinos, and the modest margin of safety to our fair value does not change the call. Analyst targets sit nearby yet bring no extra edge once the ethical issue is factored in.
Sector swings may lift results for a spell, but the combination of low profitability and the clear ethical fail keeps us away. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MGM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$43.69-4.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$45.66-3.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-07-18Markdown$47.51+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $44.
2026-07-03Markdown$47.51+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$47.51Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
