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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Costco
COST · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $441.4B · 341,000 employees
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Chin…
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-13
Options put/call open interest 0.72, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price1,046.47 USD
Fair value782.76
Ethical score89.3/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation922.77+13.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-09-24Read Markdown898.48+16.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-09-17Read Distribution910.18+15.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup971.87+7.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Costco holds its Markup at $1,046.47. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$1,046.47
Valuation
47.98 trailing · 39.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.3
Beta
0.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.46%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.18%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Costco clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when COST's ethical verdict changes
Today COST passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited in consumer boycott campaigns for stocking products from companies with operations in Israeli settlements. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $782.76 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 11.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.7% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $782.76, with a range of $693.00 to $900.18, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 39.8x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 34% above our $782.76 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The weak moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COST trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$1,012.28+3.5%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Accumulation$978.01+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$978.01+6.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown$922.77+2.7%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$898.48-1.3%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-21Distribution$910.18+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-19Distribution$910.18+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-18Distribution$910.18+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1077. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
