Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-19
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price337.26 USD
Fair value363.09
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-28Read Distribution342.87-1.6% to today ✓
2026-07-25Read Markup359.75-6.3% to today
2026-07-18Read Accumulation326.27+3.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Chubb Limited holds its Markdown at $337.26. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$337.26
Valuation
11.95 trailing · 11.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $363.09 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 6.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Beneath the Surface, Swiss Insurance Giant Fails Ethical Test
Consider this: Swiss insurer Chubb Limited, globally renowned for underwriting risks, has a hidden underbelly - it fails our ethical screen. Despite a forward P/E of 11.8x, an approachable ratio that might tempt value hunters, Chubb's business activities are not aligned with our ethical standards.
Why it stands out or, in this case, doesn't - though Chubb boasts a 6% revenue growth and a commendable 18% profit margin, the market's consensus buy rating and median target of $369 are clouded by ethical concerns. Our fair value of $363.09, which offers a +6% margin of safety, is overshadowed by the company's failure on the business activity screen.
Risks are not just in numbers but also in values. While the financial metrics may suggest an investment opportunity, Chubb's ethical failings are a significant concern for investors seeking responsible capitalism. This is not merely an analysis of figures, but a call to consider the principles behind the profits. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CB trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $366. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-28Markup$359.75+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$359.75+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$359.75+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup · changed$359.75+2.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Accumulation$352.16+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Accumulation$352.16+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Accumulation$352.16+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$352.16+7.9%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$326.27+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $345. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.