NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,418+0.42%BTC$81,092+6.14%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Residential
American Homes 4 Rent
AMH · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $12.8B · 1,598 employees
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH or the General Partner) is an internally managed Maryland real estate investment trust (REIT).
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
31.28 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-17
Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
American Homes 4 Rent holds its Markdown at $31.28. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 311 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 311 days
Price at the screen
$31.28
Valuation
24.83 trailing · 46.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.80
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 28.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
American Homes 4 Rent Sits Well Above Fair Value
Picture a landlord collecting steady rents from single-family homes across the Sun Belt. American Homes 4 Rent owns that portfolio, yet the numbers show a business growing revenue just 3 percent a year and earning a thin 7 percent return on equity.
We pass. The shares trade at 51.7 times forward earnings against our fair value of 21.28 dollars, a 38 percent premium that leaves no margin of safety. A narrow moat and modest profit margins do not justify the stretch, even with a clean ethical screen.
Housing demand can swing with interest rates and migration patterns, so earnings remain exposed to cycles that a high multiple rarely survives. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-21Markup$34.07+2.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Markup$33.29+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-17Markup$33.29+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-03Markup$33.29+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$33.29Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
