Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
78.64 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Allegiant Travel Company holds its Markdown at $78.64. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$78.64
Valuation
67.79 trailing · 7.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
15.04%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 15.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.60%
Below 5%
Only 1.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +68% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap flights to small towns hide cyclical traps
Every time a family in a forgotten city books a weekend break, the plane still needs to cover fuel, staff and maintenance on routes that only run a few times a week. Allegiant built its model around those thin leisure flows, yet revenue is growing just 5 percent while the business posts a negative 1 percent profit margin and negative 3 percent return on equity.
The forward multiple of 8.2 times looks attractive next to analyst targets near 138 dollars, but this is exactly the setup that catches investors in cyclical airlines. Peak earnings can flatten fast when fuel spikes or demand for discretionary trips fades, turning a low multiple into a warning rather than a bargain. The ethical screen clears, yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
Margins already sit in the red and the industry moves with the economy, so any apparent margin of safety can vanish when cycles turn. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALGT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markdown · changed$84.44-16.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-21Markup$100.90+10.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-18Markup$91.59+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-17Markup$91.59+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-03Markup$91.59+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$91.59Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
