NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Airlines
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V
AERO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.2B · 17,243 employees
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
14.75 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V holds its Markup at $14.75. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 94 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 94 days
Price at the screen
$14.75
Valuation
1.04 trailing · 7.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.37%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.15%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.59%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +83% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mexico Airline Trades Cheap But Cycles Trap
Picture a packed flight out of Mexico City on a boom year, only for fuel spikes or a tourism slump to empty the cabin next. Aeromexico shows an 8 times forward earnings multiple and a 35 percent gap to fair value, yet the low multiple signals peak-cycle earnings rather than a genuine bargain in this notoriously volatile sector.
Revenue is rising 13 percent with 4 percent margins and the ethical screen clears without issue, but opportunity rating sits at none because airlines swing hard between fat years and losses. The moat remains unknown, which adds another layer of uncertainty for anyone trying to call the bottom.
Fuel prices, peso swings and sudden demand shocks keep downside real even when the headline numbers look tidy. The market has seen this pattern many times before in the sector.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Mexico and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AERO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Mexico). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Accumulation$15.90+3.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-20Accumulation$15.43-11.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Accumulation$17.34+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-16Accumulation$17.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-03Accumulation$17.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$17.34Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.