Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.41, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.44 USD
Fair value20.75
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-02Read Markup14.96+9.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-26Read Markdown15.26+7.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Accumulation15.95+3.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 8% rise in 13 days
2026-09-19Read Markup14.75+11.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 15% slide in 11 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V holds its Markup at $16.44. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$16.44
Valuation
1.59 trailing · 9.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.37%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.15%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.59%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 56% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $20.75 fair value, 13.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $20.75, with a range of $15.30 to $23.87, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mexico Airline Trades Cheap But Cycles Trap
Picture a packed flight out of Mexico City on a boom year, only for fuel spikes or a tourism slump to empty the cabin next. Aeromexico shows an 8 times forward earnings multiple and a 35 percent gap to fair value, yet the low multiple signals peak-cycle earnings rather than a genuine bargain in this notoriously volatile sector.
Revenue is rising 13 percent with 4 percent margins and the ethical screen clears without issue, but opportunity rating sits at none because airlines swing hard between fat years and losses. The moat remains unknown, which adds another layer of uncertainty for anyone trying to call the bottom.
Fuel prices, peso swings and sudden demand shocks keep downside real even when the headline numbers look tidy. The market has seen this pattern many times before in the sector.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Mexico and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AERO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Mexico). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup · changed$14.96-2.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-10-26Markdown · changed$15.26-6.7%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-10-19Accumulation$16.35+5.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-10-12Accumulation$15.57-2.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-09-19Markup · changed$14.75-7.2%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-08-20Accumulation$15.90+3.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-20Accumulation$15.43-11.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Accumulation$17.34+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-16Accumulation$17.34+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.