NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 11:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Airlines
Alaska Air Group, Inc.
ALK · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.6B · 31,465 employees
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
41.16 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $41.16. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$41.16
Valuation
N/A trailing · 8.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
7.35%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.85%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.66%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Airline Shares Hide a Classic Trap
Picture a plane that looks cheap to buy only because fuel prices and holiday bookings sit at a perfect peak. Alaska Air trades at a forward multiple of 6.9 times with a 32 percent gap to our fair value, yet those figures come from an industry where earnings swing hard with the economy and jet fuel. Low profit margins of 1 percent and return on equity of just 2 percent already show the thin buffer once demand softens.
The modest 5 percent revenue growth does not change the pattern. Cyclical businesses often print their best numbers right before the next downturn, so a low multiple simply reflects that risk rather than a bargain. Ethical screens clear the company, yet that alone does not turn a peak-earnings snapshot into a durable investment case.
Volatility in travel demand, fuel costs and labour contracts can erase the apparent margin of safety quickly. Sixteen analysts may favour the shares, but history shows airline multiples expand and contract with the cycle, not with steady compounding. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALK trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Distribution$50.69+11.4%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Markup$47.32+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-17Markup$47.32+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (16 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Markup$47.32+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$47.32Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.