An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $141.22
Copa Holdings, S.A. holds its Markup at $141.22.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-31
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price
$141.22
Valuation
8.23 trailing · 7.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.98
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $174.05 fair value, strong competitive moat, 17.00% revenue growth.
Read at
$141.22
8.23 P/E · 7.10 fwd
Our fair value
$174.05
23% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$180.00
+27% to current
Target low $131.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $200.00
▲ current $141.22 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$141.22
you are here
Conservative
$126.08
-11%
Analyst avg
$180.00
+27%
Our fair value
$174.05
+23%
Analyst high
$200.00
+42%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
17.00%
Profit margin
18.76%
Debt to equity
84.12
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 15 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 48.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 28.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Airline looks cheap but debt trips the screen
Picture a packed flight out of Panama City linking the whole region, with cargo tucked underneath. Copa moves people and parcels across Latin America on a fleet of 125 aircraft and posts solid 17 percent revenue growth, 19 percent profit margins and 26 percent return on equity. The business earns a strong moat rating, yet our ethical screen fails on the debt ratio, which is enough on its own to trigger an avoid.
The forward price to earnings multiple sits at just 7 times, and fifteen analysts rate the shares a strong buy with a median target of 180 dollars. Those figures sit above our own fair value of 174 dollars from the current price of 139 dollars. In a cyclical industry such as airlines, a low multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the risk of an abrupt downturn in travel demand remains real.
High leverage already fails the ethical test, and any softening in regional economies would quickly pressure cash flow and increase that burden. The combination of cyclical exposure and the debt issue outweighs the operating strengths.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CPA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Panama). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164. Entered 2026-07-25 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-25Markup$139.07-1.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-07-18Markup$141.69+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-07-03Markup$141.69+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$141.69Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming CPA
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
2026-04-13
Ro Khanna
Democrat
Purchase
1K–15K
14 May2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$115.63
+11.3%
$1.71
$1,128
+12.8%
2 months
$117.75
+9.3%
$1.71
$1,108
+10.8%
3 months
$111.09
+15.9%
$1.71
$1,174
+17.4%
6 months
$115.66
+11.3%
$3.42
$1,143
+14.3%
1 year
$102.13
+26.1%
$6.64
$1,326
+32.6%
2 years
$83.82
+53.6%
$13.08
$1,692
+69.2%
3 years
$94.49
+36.2%
$17.94
$1,552
+55.2%
5 years
$63.95
+101.3%
$19.58
$2,319
+131.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CPA does next, these words stay.
Copa Holdings, S.A. · CPA · Markup · $141.22
Recorded 2026-07-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
