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The Screen · Industrials · Airlines
Copa Holdings, S.A.
CPA · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.2B · 8,565 employees
Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
128.56 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Copa Holdings, S.A. holds its Markdown at $128.56. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$128.56
Valuation
8.44 trailing · 6.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
28.26%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 28.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $173.56 fair value, strong competitive moat, 25.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Airline looks cheap but debt trips the screen
Picture a packed flight out of Panama City linking the whole region, with cargo tucked underneath. Copa moves people and parcels across Latin America on a fleet of 125 aircraft and posts solid 17 percent revenue growth, 19 percent profit margins and 26 percent return on equity. The business earns a strong moat rating, yet our ethical screen fails on the debt ratio, which is enough on its own to trigger an avoid.
The forward price to earnings multiple sits at just 7 times, and fifteen analysts rate the shares a strong buy with a median target of 180 dollars. Those figures sit above our own fair value of 174 dollars from the current price of 139 dollars. In a cyclical industry such as airlines, a low multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the risk of an abrupt downturn in travel demand remains real.
High leverage already fails the ethical test, and any softening in regional economies would quickly pressure cash flow and increase that burden. The combination of cyclical exposure and the debt issue outweighs the operating strengths.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Panama and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CPA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Panama). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-25Markup$139.07-1.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-07-18Markup$141.69+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-07-03Markup$141.69+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$141.69Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
