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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Industrial Distribution
Pool Corporation
POOL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $6.4B · 6,000 employees
Pool Corporation distributes swimming pool supplies, equipment, related leisure, irrigation, and landscape maintenance products in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
175.76 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 05:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 175.76 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 190.01, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price175.76 USD
Fair value190.01
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Markdown188.24-6.6% to today ✓
2026-08-09Read Markup201.08-12.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution185.52-5.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Pool Corporation holds its Markdown at $175.76. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$175.76
Valuation
16.14 trailing · 14.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.33%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.04%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $190.01 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 2.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pool supplier trips on debt and ethics screen
Picture every suburban pool owner restocking chemicals and filters each summer. Pool Corporation moves those goods through a narrow distribution network, yet the business carries too much debt for our screen to clear. That single ethical failure overrides the modest 8 percent margin of safety and the 6 percent revenue growth on offer.
The shares sit at 16.7 times forward earnings with a 34 percent return on equity and a narrow moat. Eleven analysts still push a buy rating and a 250 dollar median target, but we pass because the debt ratio breaches our limits and the cyclical leisure trade offers little protection when rates stay high.
A low multiple on peak earnings can mask a value trap rather than reveal a bargain, and currency or weather swings add further volatility. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
POOL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$188.24-6.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-08-09Markup · changed$201.08+8.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $260.
2026-07-18Distribution$185.52+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $260.
2026-07-03Distribution$185.52+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$185.52Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.