Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price1,266.61 USD
Fair value1,186.69
Ethical score79.8/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-31Read Distribution1,300.34-2.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup1,300.01-2.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
W. W. Grainger holds its Markdown at $1,266.61. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$1,266.61
Valuation
32.89 trailing · 25.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 79.8
Beta
1.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $1,186.69 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 10.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Factory supply runs still cost too much
Every workshop manager ordering a new pump seal or safety gloves knows the order must arrive fast and the price must stay steady. Grainger delivers both across North America, yet the shares trade at 27.6 times forward earnings against a fair value sixteen percent lower than the current price. Strong returns on equity and double-digit revenue growth do not offset the narrow moat and the clear gap between price and value.
That valuation leaves little room for the industrial cycle to slow or for larger rivals to take share. A hold rating from analysts and a target below the current quote already signal the market sees limited upside. Currency moves and construction spending swings add further volatility that a premium multiple rarely rewards.
The business clears our ethical screen without issue. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GWW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266.
2026-07-31Markup$1,398.95+7.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266.
2026-07-18Markup$1,300.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266.
2026-07-03Markup$1,300.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$1,300.01Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
