NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 11:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Booking Holdings
BKNG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $135.5B · 24,900 employees
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
180.30 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Booking Holdings holds its Distribution at $180.30. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 120 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 120 days
Price at the screen
$180.30
Valuation
20.01 trailing · 14.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.07
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
65.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 65.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
71.84%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 71.8% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
3.42%
Below 5%
Only 3.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 42% discount to our $256.15 fair value, 8.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 42.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 37 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Travel Giant's Debt Holds It Back
Imagine a traveler planning their dream vacation, the convenience of a single platform like Booking.com is invaluable. This is Booking Holdings' domain,便捷地预订酒店，机票和餐厅。但是他们的财务状况却并不像他们的服务那么吸引人。The company fails our ethical screen due to a high debt ratio, a red flag in the travel industry, which can be particularly leveraged and sensitive to economic downturns.
Why it stands out is its position as a travel services powerhouse, with a robust 8% revenue growth and a healthy 26% profit margin, indicating operational efficiency. However, despite these positives and a forward P/E of 17.0x, which is relatively attractive, the ethical failing cannot be overlooked, especially considering the cyclical nature of the travel industry.
Risk sits with the company's high debt levels, which not only fail our ethical screen but also pose a significant risk in a cyclical industry. While the market consensus is bullish with a median target of $240, our fair value sits at $256.14, reflecting a 22% margin of safety. However, the ethical failing is a deal-breaker for us. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BKNG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup$209.87+18.3%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-28Markup$177.46+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$177.46+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$177.46+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup · changed$177.46-2.3%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$181.68+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$181.68+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$181.68+9.6%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$165.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Distribution$165.84+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
