Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.39, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price29.59 USD
Fair value38.78
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation28.83+2.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 30% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markup22.14+33.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-09-21Read Markdown22.70+30.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 12% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-24Read Accumulation25.73+15.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 6% slide in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Carnival holds its Accumulation at $29.59. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$29.59
Valuation
12.70 trailing · 11.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
2.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
54.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 54.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.19%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Carnival's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 54% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CCL's ethical verdict changes
Today CCL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 19% discount to our $38.78 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 3.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $38.78, with a range of $33.42 to $55.71, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cruises sell escape but debt drags the hull
A week at sea promises sun decks and buffets, yet Carnival carries more borrowed money than most leisure names can comfortably float. Revenue edges up just 5 percent, margins sit at 11 percent and the forward multiple looks modest at 10 times. Still we pass.
The ethical screen flags the debt ratio first, and the business sits squarely in a cyclical lane where peak earnings often flatter a low multiple. Moderate moat, 27 percent ROE and a buy-rated analyst crowd do not shift that verdict. We stay away on principle rather than price.
Heavy leverage leaves little room when fuel costs spike or bookings soften, and the cycle can turn faster than any quarterly print reveals. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CCL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-25Markup$26.46+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-18Markup$26.46+19.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-11Markup$22.14+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$22.14-0.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-09-24Markdown$22.31-1.7%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$22.70-11.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-24Distribution$26.41-3.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Distribution$27.41+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
