Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.47, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price272.48 USD
Fair value415.62
Ethical score75.4/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markup288.95-5.7% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markdown264.23+3.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution264.23+3.1% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 5% slide in 9 weeks
2026-07-28Read Markup278.37-2.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 22% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Expedia Group holds its Markup at $272.48. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 116 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 116 days
Price at the screen
$272.48
Valuation
17.86 trailing · 11.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 75.4
Beta
1.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
39.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 39.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.73%
Below 5%
Only 1.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Expedia clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 26%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today EXPE passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 34% discount to our $415.62 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 14.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $415.62, with a range of $405.50 to $544.96, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Holiday bookings keep the cash flowing
When families finally book that summer holiday, Expedia sits in the middle taking a cut. Revenue is rising 15 percent, the forward multiple sits at just 11.7 times, and return on equity hits 71 percent, all while the shares trade at a 32 percent discount to our fair value. The business clears the ethical screen and still carries a narrow moat in a market where scale matters.
A 10 percent profit margin and buy-rated analyst consensus point to steady demand recovery in travel services. The setup looks attractive on paper for a consumer cyclical name that has rebuilt its balance sheet after the pandemic shock.
Travel spending remains sensitive to recessions and fuel spikes, and a narrow moat leaves room for rivals to chip away at margins. Peak-cycle earnings can flatten fast, so the low multiple may simply reflect that risk rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EXPE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$285.77-4.4%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $337. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$298.99+4.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$285.93+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$285.93+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$285.93+1.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$282.73+2.6%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$275.53-4.6%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$288.95+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (34 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$288.95+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $335.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$288.95+9.4%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $336.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
