The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Royal Caribbean Group RCL
Clears the common standard
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
read at $305.04
Royal Caribbean Group holds its Markup at $305.04.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 60 days |
| Price | $305.04 |
| Valuation | 18.62 trailing · 15.26 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 1.76 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 28% discount to our $389.90 fair value, strong competitive moat, 11.30% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
| Revenue growth | 11.30% |
| Profit margin | 24.36% |
| Debt to equity | 217.31 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 27 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
Used by most halal investing apps ✓ PASSES
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 52.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 28.3%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 2.7% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Cruise ship sails despite heavy debt chains
Picture a packed cruise liner cutting through calm seas, yet dragging chains of debt that sit just below the waterline. Royal Caribbean posts 11% revenue growth, 24% profit margins and 50% ROE with a strong moat, yet none of that moves the needle for us.
We pass because the business fails our ethical screen on debt ratio. The 37% margin of safety to our fair value and the buy-rated analyst target of $345 look tempting on paper, but leverage rules it out regardless of the forward P/E at 14.3x.
High debt leaves the company exposed if bookings soften or interest costs climb. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 15.3x priced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 18.6x reasonably valued |
| Revenue growth | 11.3% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 24.4% healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 49.6% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 2.17 heavy leverage — higher risk if revenue softens |
| Current ratio | 0.20 below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 1.76 much more volatile than the market |
| Market cap | $81.8B |
| Employees | 107,950 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on RCL
- › RCL Stock: Collect 13% Now, In Exchange For 19% Of Upside Trefis · 14d ago
- › Here's Why Royal Caribbean (RCL) Fell More Than Broader Market Zacks · 15d ago
- › DB cautious on cruise stocks as fundamentals “not as clear as bulls believe” Investing.com · 15d ago
- › Hasbro Gear Up for Q2 Earnings: What Should Investors Expect? Zacks · 16d ago
- › Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line to See Lower Net Yields in H2 Due to Iran Conflict, Morgan Stanley Says MT Newswires · 17d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in RCL's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
RCL trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $338.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | WIERNICKI CHRISTOPHER J. | Director | 444 | · | |
| 2026-02-27 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER | Director | 771,607 | $243,570,580 | |
| 2026-02-24 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER | Director | 473,548 | $149,441,189 | |
| 2026-02-19 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER | Director | 206,442 | $65,426,312 | |
| 2026-02-17 | WILHELMSEN ARNE ALEXANDER | Director | 280,000 | $91,172,995 | |
| 2026-02-17 | MONTIEL MARITZA GOMEZ | Director | 1,385 | $453,137 | |
| 2026-02-17 | BETHGE LAURA H | Officer | 7,854 | $2,562,053 | |
| 2026-02-13 | HOLTZ NAFTALI | Chief Financial Officer | 750 | · | |
| 2026-02-13 | PUJOL HENRY L | Officer | 4,442 | $1,456,932 | |
| 2026-02-13 | BAYLEY MICHAEL W | Officer | 80,000 | $26,145,464 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 May2026 | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democrat | sell | 15K–50K |
| 4 May2026 | Kelly Morrison | Democrat | sell | 15K–50K |
| 15 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $262.10 | +2.6% | $1.50 | $1,032 | +3.2% |
| 2 months | $275.51 | -2.4% | $1.50 | $982 | -1.8% |
| 3 months | $265.12 | +1.5% | $1.50 | $1,020 | +2.0% |
| 6 months | $275.84 | -2.5% | $4.00 | $990 | -1.0% |
| 1 year | $265.17 | +1.5% | $5.00 | $1,033 | +3.3% |
| 2 years | $151.12 | +78.0% | $7.45 | $1,829 | +82.9% |
| 3 years | $88.71 | +203.3% | $7.45 | $3,116 | +211.6% |
| 5 years | $87.61 | +207.1% | $7.45 | $3,156 | +215.6% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.