NAS10026,630−6.36%S&P7,354−4.36%GOLD$4,075−0.93%BTC$76,040+0.13%VIX26.62−5.54%latest tape · as of 12:04 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Booking Holdings
BKNG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $116.6B · 24,900 employees
Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
168.72 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 12:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price168.72 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.41, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price168.72 USD
Fair value254.11
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution147.94+14.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 11% slide in 2 days
2026-10-27Read Markup165.80+1.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-02Read Distribution163.95+2.9% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 10 weeks
2026-07-25Read Markup177.46-4.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 3 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Booking Holdings holds its Distribution at $168.72. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days
Price at the screen
$168.72
Valuation
16.68 trailing · 12.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
65.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 65.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
71.84%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 71.8% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
3.42%
Below 5%
Only 3.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Booking's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 66% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BKNG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $254.11 fair value, 8.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $254.11, with a range of $204.17 to $340.29, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 8%-growth business trading at just 12.2x forward earnings. That is a 33% discount to our $254.11 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 35 analysts rate it Buy with a $236.00 average target, about 40% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BKNG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Distribution$148.13+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$148.13+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$148.13-1.5%Entry 20
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$150.43+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$150.43+1.7%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$165.80+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup · changed$165.80+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$165.80+3.4%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Distribution$160.34-2.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $224. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
