An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $145.98
Airbnb holds its Markdown at $145.98.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 262 days
Price
$145.98
Valuation
36.13 trailing · 24.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.14
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 9.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 30.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purity5.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $145.65 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 17.90% revenue growth.
Read at
$145.98
36.13 P/E · 24.18 fwd
Our fair value
$145.65
0% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$158.50
+9% to current
Target low $115.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $181.00
▲ current $145.98 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$145.98
you are here
Conservative
$103.50
-29%
Analyst avg
$158.50
+9%
Our fair value
$145.65
-0%
Analyst high
$181.00
+24%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
17.90%
Profit margin
19.90%
Debt to equity
33.19
Analyst consensus
Buy · 38 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Bookings flow but ethics block the path
Picture a traveller tapping an app to find a spare room in Lisbon or a surf lesson in Bali. The platform works smoothly, yet Airbnb fails our ethical screen on revenue purity, which is enough on its own to rule it out.
Strong returns on equity at 32 percent, 18 percent revenue growth and a solid moat do not change the call. The shares sit right on our fair value with zero margin of safety, and a forward multiple of 24 times leaves little room for the travel cycle to turn.
Analyst targets sit higher, but cyclical demand swings and the ethical red flag outweigh any near-term optimism. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ABNB trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$133.54+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-16Markdown$133.54+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Markdown$133.54+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$133.54Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · ABNB
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-05-27
Chesky Brian
CEO, COB, 10%
Sale
515,296
$68,365,969
2026-05-20
BLECHARCZYK NATHAN
Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner
2,739
$359,905
2026-05-19
GEBBIA JOSEPH
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
3,450,000
·
2026-05-19
BLECHARCZYK NATHAN
Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner
450
·
2026-05-18
GEBBIA JOSEPH
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
54,000
$7,282,706
2026-05-11
BLECHARCZYK NATHAN
Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner
60,763
·
2026-05-11
BLECHARCZYK NATHAN
Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner
60,763
$8,853,375
2026-05-04
MERTZ ELINOR
Chief Financial Officer
3,750
$536,250
2026-05-04
GEBBIA JOSEPH
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
