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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
ZGN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.0B · 7,243 employees
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and other accessories worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
13.96 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price13.96 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.50, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price13.96 USD
Fair value14.42
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup13.49+3.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation12.52+11.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after an 8% rise in 3 weeks
2026-09-18Read Markdown11.60+20.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 22% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-19Read Distribution14.91-6.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution while volume still accumulates
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. holds its Markup at $13.96. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$13.96
Valuation
42.51 trailing · 24.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ermenegildo Zegna's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ZGN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $14.42 fair value estimate, 6.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.2% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $14.42, with a range of $11.23 to $16.63, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury Labels Hit a Wall With Zero Growth
Picture a Milan tailor still charging premium prices while the same number of customers walk through the door each year. Ermenegildo Zegna finds itself in exactly that position, with revenue flat and a forward multiple of 22.8 times earnings that leaves almost no margin of safety at the current share price.
The business clears our ethical screen and carries a modest 11 percent return on equity, yet the lack of top-line momentum in a cyclical luxury market makes the valuation look stretched rather than attractive. Analyst targets sit only slightly above the current level, offering little cushion if spending patterns shift.
Cyclical consumer spending can turn quickly, and any slowdown would expose the thin 5 percent profit margin without the buffer of growth. This leaves the shares looking fairly valued at best, not compelling. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Italy and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ZGN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Italy). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup · changed$13.49+5.6%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Accumulation$12.77-0.2%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-18Accumulation$12.79+2.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-02Markdown$12.42+7.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-09-18Markdown · changed$11.60-22.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 22.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markup$14.70+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markup$14.70+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$14.70Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
